The change to the investment policy within Carmarthenshire County Council regarding the Residential Care Homes is driven by financial considerations.
There is however a genuine belief by Council Officers that some people currently placed in Residential Care Homes would be better placed in Extra Care Facilities. This is estimated by the Council at 36% but has not been confirmed by independant observations. Sadly there are no spare Extra Care places.
According to the Council Officers further residents possibly need to be placed in Nursing Care although until re-assessment is done no figures are available.
This could reduce the need for Residential Care places run by the Council however as at December 2009 there were only 90 vacancies for every type of Care (Nursing and Extra Care) in all Care Homes (both Independant and Council) yet if the 6 Local Authority Homes are closed the knock on effects will remove some 158 places, 7 places from Y Plas where Respite places will displace Residential beds, 12 places from Llys Y Bryn displaced by Convalescence beds and 28 from Y Bythwyn which is earmarked for EMI Care.
This means that there will be a shortfall of 110 Care beds in Carmarthenshire immediately the planned Homes closure takes effect. Where are these people supposed to go?
A further concern is that in 5 years, according to Council figures there will be a 24% increase in people over the age of 65 and this could mean that a further 300 Residential Care beds may be needed - leading to a total shortfall of some 400 Residential beds in Carmarthenshire.
There is no provision at all to allow for this expected increase. Apart from Annedd there is no Care Facility being built to allow for this expected increase.